Sustainability Scenarios
FORESIGHT IN SUSFANS – IMPACTS OF MACRO ECONOMIC DRIVERS
To explore sustainability implications and identify challenges for EU FNS, three contextual scenarios were quantified along with four key macro-economic dimensions that were recognized as vital for future EU FNS:
- Demographic and income trends: One important driver of future food demand and consequently FNS are socio-economic developments. These were identified as a key scenario component and quantified in Task 10.1 (Havlík et al., 2018) in the scenario database.
- Technological change: The speed of change and character of technical change (adaptation of new technologies or technology transfer) is important for future FNS but also for reducing environmental impacts of the agricultural production system.
- Policy context: The European agro-food sector develops within a complex policy framework. A prominent example examined here is international trade policy, being of utmost importance when considering the environmental and social objectives.
The three contextual scenarios were developed along these drivers and span from i) a future based on ongoing global developments (REF0), ii) a future with high challenges for sustainable global food and nutrition security (REF-), and iii) a future with comparably low challenges for sustainable food and nutrition security at global scale (REF+). A detailed description of the underlying macro-economic drivers is provided in D10.1 (Havlík et al., 2018). This chapter represents a summary of results across contextual scenarios based on D10.2 (Frank et al., 2018) however with enhanced details for the four case study countries and food consumption related indicators such as household expenditures or food purchases. The presented results in this chapter do not consider dietary interventions on the demand side.